Fantasy Recap – Pleasant Surprises, Biggest Busts

Zac Stacy led may fantasy squads to the promised land

Zac Stacy led may fantasy squads to the promised land

Since the season has come to a close, we can look back at the many surprises that made up the 2013-14 football season. Due to injury and inconsistency, many players had a tough time putting up the numbers that they were expected to produce. Thankfully for fantasy owners, there were some diamonds in the rough that filled the void left by the unexpected letdowns. The following players shocked many fantasy owners with either their impressive or downright awful play, making for another interesting season.

1. Zac Stacy, STL:

The Rams running back situation in St. Louis was a mess from the beginning, but Zac Stacy stepped up and thrust himself into the starting role. Originally third on the depth chart behind a less than impressive Daryl Richardson, and the troubled Isaiah Pead, Stacy wound up proving himself to be a more than capable every down back.

Despite only playing in 14 games, the late fifth round draft pick was able to rack up 973 rushing yards and 8 total touchdowns (7 on the ground). With the Rams picking second in the upcoming draft, they could provide Stacy with a little more running room by snagging OT Jake Matthews from Texas A&M. Stacy’s fantasy stock is on the rise heading into next season.

2. Josh Gordon, CLE:

Josh Gordon was one of the few bright spots for the Cleveland Browns this season. Along with 9 touchdowns, Gordon led the league with 1,646 receiving yards. Due to a 2-game suspension to start off the year, Gordon was only able to play 14 games, but made the most of his time on the field.

The second year wideout had some remarkable stretches during the 2013 season, including a 4 game streak of 125 yards and a touchdown or more, including back to back 200 yard contests. Despite having to deal with 3 different quarterbacks, Gordon was able to satisfy his fantasy owners with constant production, but next year has the possibility of being one with even more success.

With the 4th overall pick in the draft, the Browns will most likely draft a quarterback in Johnny Manziel of Texas A&M, Blake Bortles of the University of Central Florida or Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater. Consistency at QB will allow Gordon to build rapport and give him the potential to beat his receiving totals of 2013.

3. C.J. Spiller, BUF:

Spiller had an unsuccessful 2013 campaign in comparison to his coming into the starting role in 2012. The 4th year running back saw a decrease in both rushing yards and touchdowns, but this isn’t necessarily a trend that will carry over into next season. Despite failing to break 1,000 yards, Spiller was able to get to an impressive average of 4.6 yards per carry. With fellow running back Fred Jackson being 32 years old, his role in the offense will most likely diminish which should allow Spiller to obtain a heftier workload.

At 26 years old, Spiller should be entering the prime of his career and should be expected to surpass 1,000 yards once again. The one concern that fantasy owners might have about C.J. Spiller is that he does not get the red zone carries, as they instead go to Fred Jackson, and it is yet to be seen if he can take over in that department.

4. Doug Martin, TB:

Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin was unable to stay on the field due to injury, not allowing him to build off of his powerhouse rookie season. Durability may be an issue for the young running back, but what is just as conceding is how poor his play was while he was still healthy. In 6 games, Martin was only able to muster up 456 yards and 1 touchdown, only breaking 100 yards once. He just did not look like the same player that rushed for 1,454 yards and 11 touchdowns in his 2012 rookie season.

There is a lot of uncertainty following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in that they still have not made public who will be their starting quarterback for 2014, and the debacle with Doug Martin only makes their team situation that much more difficult. Expect Martin to come back strong for 2014 as Tampa Bay decided to shut him down for the season after he tore his labrum, allowing him more than enough time to get himself healthy. He should be taken as a strong RB2 with RB1 upside as the season progresses.

Sense of Competition Returns to Pro Bowl

This one stayed close until the end

This one stayed close until the end

The last few years the legitimacy of the Pro Bowl has been diminishing, so much so that a couple years ago NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to scrap the game entirely.

This year the NFL exercised a new Pro Bowl format that made the game a huge hit with the players and the fans. The new fantasy-style draft for the Pro Bowl allowed alumni captains Jerry Rice and Deion Sanders to draft their teams regardless of the players’ division, or team.

The game was phenomenal in the stand point that all parties took it seriously. The participants mentioned it was fun to beat people you are usually lined up next to, and many also mentioned that they did not want to let their respective alumni captains down with a loss.

The game had amazing defense, fantastic athletic highlights that featured touchdowns, and overall a sense of competitiveness that has been unprecedented in past Pro Bowls.

The defense was the true shining points of the game. Between the elite defensive lines and stifling secondaries there was a total of eight turnovers and nine sacks.  

Potential defensive player of the year JJ Watt could not be contained as he had a sack and two pass deflections. His presence called for a double team allowing Gerald McCoy and Greg Hardy to lay the lumber on the opposing quarterbacks.

The contest was so competitive that the game was decided in the last minute of play with a short pass from Kansas City’s Alex Smith to Dallas’s Demarco Murray, who was able to zip around and through defenders into the end zone.

Now since it is the Pro Bowl, Jerry Rice thought why not go for the two-point conversion for the 22-21 advantage? Carolina Panther Mike Tolbert was able to barrel his way in to score and bring Rice’s squad home with a victory.

Manning, Brady Set for AFC Championship Clash

Savor this quarterback rivalry while it lasts

Savor this quarterback rivalry while it lasts

Football fans got exactly what they asked for as Peyton Manning and the Broncos take on Tom Brady and the Patriots for a spot in the Super Bowl.

It’s no surprise the Broncos have made it this far with all the weapons they have on offense, but few expected the Patriots to get within a game of the Super Bowl after losing Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker during the off-season.

Most football experts will agree that on paper that Denver should win by at least two touchdowns. Denver is playing at home, the weather is expected to be 50+ degrees, the Broncos had statistically the best offensive season in NFL history and Peyton Manning had the best statistical season for a quarterback in NFL history. The Broncos bring to the table five players who have scored 10 or more touchdowns this season while the  Patriots have no vertical passing game and  have surprisingly morphed into a power running team.

It seems hard to imagine how the Patriots can keep up with the Broncos but Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have a history of finding a way to give Peyton Manning and his high power offenses fits and no one will be surprised if the Patriots find a way to win and advance to their sixth Super Bowl appearance in the Brady and Belichick era.

It should be a great AFC championship game, but which team has the edge?

What happened in Week 12 when the Patriots came back from a 24 point deficit to win in overtime doesn’t hold much water when analyzing this game. Both teams had three turnovers, it was extremely windy, and both teams have lost significant players since the Week 12 match-up. There will be no Rob Gronkowski to control the middle of the field and there will be no Von Miller to rush the passer and no Chris Harris to guard the slot receivers.

This game will come down to whether or not the Broncos can convert red zone trips into touchdowns and whether or not the Patriots can run the ball successfully and move the chains on third down. Like most games in the NFL, this game will be won or lost in the trenches.

Let’s take a look at both sides of the ball and break down which team has the advantage in this game.

Broncos Offense against Patriots Defense 

Belichick and the Patriots will do everything in their power to not get beaten through the air and will likely play with only six players in the box and two deep safeties at all times.  The Broncos should be able to run the ball which will shorten the game and play into the Patriots. The Pats will bet the house on their ability to make key stops in the red zone.

The Patriots defense will have a perfect game plan to stop the Broncos offense, but do they have the players to execute this game plan? I think not, advantage Broncos Offense. 

Broncos Defense against Patriots Offense

The Patriots will need to run the ball extremely well to win this game. They have been running the ball very well in recent weeks and should have enough success to keep them in this game. The Pats will try to establish the run early and get their play-action passing game going in “obvious” run situations. The Patriots have had a lot of success completing short passes and turning them into big plays so whether or not the Broncos can make open field tackles will be a big factor in this game.

Look for the Patriots to use their short passing game to open up the run early. The Broncos do have the seventh ranked rushing defense but they haven’t been tested on the ground much this season since their opponents have been playing from behind most of the year. The Patriots should have success on the ground and Shane Vereen should be able to move the chains catching passes out of the backfield on third downs.

Does a Tom Brady powered offense have an advantage over Denver’s 19th ranked defense? I think so, advantage Patriots Offense.

Many look at this game as Manning against Brady, but I believe this game will be won by which team is more physical upfront. The more physical team will likely create the most pressure on the opposing quarterback which will likely lead to a game-changing turnover. The quarterback that will have the best game will be the one with the least amount pressuring from the opposing pass rush.

I see this being a great game with multiple lead changes but I don’t see the Patriots having enough firepower on offense to keep up with a Broncos squad that is playing at home and on a mission to get to a Super Bowl after their disappointing early exit in the playoffs last season. Brady is 2 – 1 against Manning in the playoffs but the home team has won each time in those meetings.

I see the Broncos winning at home in a four point game and kneeling on the ball to run out the clock. The Broncos expected to be at this point before the season started and the Patriots are just happy to have gotten this far given what they have had to overcome to get here.

 

 

Seahawks, 49ers Ready to Rumble in Seattle

There is no lost love between these division rivals

There is no lost love between these division rivals

There is NO love lost between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawaks as these two heated division rivals prepare for battle in this weekend’s NFC Championship Game. Sure, Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh used to be the gold standard for vitriol and pure hatred in the NFL, but you’d be kidding yourself if you didn’t think the Seahawks and 49ers is the best (and ugliest) rivalry in the NFL. These two teams are so similar in style and quality, that whomever makes it out alive, will have unquestionably earned their ticket to the Super Bowl.

Who has the edge?

Although Seattle has only played one playoff game to San Francisco’s two, it’s still clear that the 49ers have been the stronger team for the last month or so. They finished the regular season with six consecutive victories and then impressed on the road in the first two rounds of the playoffs on the road against Green Bay and Carolina. While Seattle earned the right to have a first-round bye and two home games in the postseason, there’s no denying they’ve been skittish of late. They lost to Arizona in Week 16 at home, even though Carson Palmer through 4 INT’s. And last week against New Orleans, the Seahawks defense shut down Drew Brees and company for most of the game, only for the Saints to have a chance to tie late in the 4th quarter.

Given that fact, we still know the narrative surrounding Russell Wilson’s bunch at Century Link Field – they’re tough to beat. It’s loud, hostile, and apart from that dud against the Cardinals, Seattle is lights out when they play at home. Furthermore, they have owned the 49ers the past few seasons when they play with the help of the 12th man. Earlier this season in Seattle (Week 2), the Seahawks annihilated Colin Kaepernick’s bunch 29-3, despite Wilson only completing 8 passes. Much of that had to do with Kaepernick’s 3 INT’s, but it was equally due to Seattle establishing their dominant run game and defense early and often.

And it will be Marshawn Lynch and the best secondary in the NFL that the Seahawks will have to rely upon to beat the monster the 49ers have become. A lot has been made of Wilson’s inability to put the team on his back recently, relegated to the dreaded “game manager.” While there is credence to Wilson’s struggles, that isn’t to say he won’t come out and play like one of the best QB’s in the league and vault the Seahawks into the Super Bowl. He may have to, given how equally matched the two defenses are.

This matchup may come down to which quarterback makes more plays in the end. If the defenses and running games essentially cancel each other out, will it be Wilson or Kaepernick that steps up in the big moment? It could be argued that Wilson’s job will be slightly tougher; his weapons aren’t as explosive as Kaepernick’s. And Percy Harvin has officially been ruled out with a concussion after finally making it back last week against New Orleans.

Can Wilson do what he did in last year’s divisional round playoff game against the Atlanta Falcons? Seattle looked down and out for most of the game, but Wilson led the Seahawks as they stormed back to take the lead with under two minutes, only to have Matt Ryan and his offense squeak out a late field goal to advance. If Wilson elevates his play above game manager-level, Seattle will be tough to beat.

However, we don’t really know if he’s capable of that right now. His confidence looks shaken, and the 49ers bring a rugged attitude and the best linebackers in the game to Seattle.

This game is going to be an absolute war. These two teams genuinely hate each other, and they had a knock-down, drag-out cage match in Week 14 at Candlestick that ended in a 19-17 victory for the 49ers. I give the slight edge to San Francisco. They are playing with a great confidence about them, and they might be one of the only teams that can still play their own game in front of Seattle’s crowd. Look for Kaepernick to make a play with his legs late in the 4th quarter that will propel his team to its second straight Super Bowl.